GREYSCOUT RESEARCH
Grey Market
Risk Report
Every major Amazon US category, scored and ranked by grey market exposure using GreyScout’s four-signal Grey Market Risk Index. Updated every quarter, with movement tracked monthly in between. The full Q2 2026 ranking is below. The report adds the signal-level data, subcategory analysis, and team guidance behind it.
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What is the Grey Market Risk Index?
The Grey Market Risk Index is GreyScout’s proprietary scoring system that evaluates grey market exposure across Amazon US marketplace categories. Each of the 20 tracked categories receives a composite score from 0 to 100, built from four weighted signals: third-party seller concentration, international seller revenue presence, seller density, and seller base expansion. Scores map to four risk tiers: CRITICAL (70 to 100), HIGH (50 to 69), MODERATE (30 to 49), and LOW (0 to 29). Scores are updated quarterly, with category movement re-scored monthly between editions.
10
CRITICAL risk categories at quarter end, the highest in this series
6
Categories newly CRITICAL this quarter
15/20
Categories closed June with more sellers per listing than in April
0
LOW-risk categories remaining this quarter
Grey Market Risk Index: the Q2 2026 ranking
All 20 tracked Amazon US categories, ranked by composite risk score for April through June 2026. The full report adds the four signal breakdowns, seller and revenue trend flags, and quarter-over-quarter movement for every category.
| # | Category | Score | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Home & Kitchen | 81.5 | CRITICAL |
| 2 | Cell Phones & Accessories | 81.5 | CRITICAL |
| 3 | Clothing, Shoes & Jewelry | 79.1 | CRITICAL |
| 4 | Toys & Games | 77.0 | CRITICAL |
| 5 | Industrial & Scientific | 74.1 | CRITICAL |
| 6 | Arts, Crafts & Sewing | 73.4 | CRITICAL |
| 7 | Pet Supplies | 73.3 | CRITICAL |
| 8 | Beauty & Personal Care | 72.0 | CRITICAL |
| 9 | Electronics | 71.9 | CRITICAL |
| 10 | Sports & Outdoors | 70.1 | CRITICAL |
| 11 | Health & Household | 69.1 | HIGH |
| 12 | Patio, Lawn & Garden | 64.9 | HIGH |
| 13 | Musical Instruments | 64.9 | HIGH |
| 14 | Tools & Home Improvement | 63.5 | HIGH |
| 15 | Office Products | 63.2 | HIGH |
| 16 | Baby Products | 60.8 | HIGH |
| 17 | Automotive | 59.0 | HIGH |
| 18 | Appliances | 57.7 | HIGH |
| 19 | Video Games | 51.4 | HIGH |
| 20 | Grocery & Gourmet Food | 47.4 | MODERATE |
Risk tier thresholds: CRITICAL 70 to 100, HIGH 50 to 69, MODERATE 30 to 49, LOW 0 to 29. Tiers are assigned on the raw score. Quarter-over-quarter movement is measured against the restated Q1 2026 baseline. Ahead of this edition, the full Q1 scoring pipeline was re-run as part of production quality assurance; the restated scores are the baseline of record for this series. Full details in the report methodology. The index measures structural risk conditions — not confirmed grey market volume. A high score means the conditions are in place for grey market activity to occur. It is not a count of unverified sellers.
Citing this data? Reference “GreyScout Grey Market Risk Index, Q2 2026” and link to this page. Score-level and signal-level data for every category is in the full report.
Why is your category CRITICAL?
The score tells you where risk sits. The report tells you why: the four signal values behind every category, seller and revenue trends at quarter end, and the 15 subcategories where conditions are most acute.
The index moves every month. So do we.
Q1 (restated)
April 2026
May 2026
Q2 close
April’s seller expansion pushed twelve categories into CRITICAL. May pulled six back, and the May Movement Alert warned that a falling count driven by paused expansion is not falling risk. June proved it: expansion resumed, the structural signals that never eased carried six categories over the threshold, and the quarter closed at ten, the highest in this series. A category that looks calmer this month is not a category you can stop watching.
Finding 01
The risk didn't unwind, it rotated
Q2 2026 closes with ten CRITICAL-rated categories, up from six at the end of Q1 on the restated baseline. But the headline number understates the churn beneath it. Two of Q1’s six CRITICAL categories, Tools & Home Improvement and Baby Products, stepped back to HIGH as their seller expansion paused. Six categories crossed the threshold in their place: Home & Kitchen, Clothing, Shoes & Jewelry, Industrial & Scientific, Pet Supplies, Beauty & Personal Care, and Electronics. A quarterly index captures which categories carry acute risk at a single point in time; which categories those are can shift within the quarter, which is why continuous monitoring, not a static list, is what catches exposure as it moves.
Finding 02
Risk concentrated where the revenue is
Amazon’s largest revenue category entered CRITICAL territory as the quarter’s joint top scorer, with all three structural signals rising together. The report breaks down the movement signal by signal.
Finding 03
The May dip was velocity noise, and June proved it
One category eased in May, then returned to CRITICAL in June with higher 3P concentration than before the dip. The report shows the full pattern and what it means for monitoring cadence.
Finding 04
Downgraded doesn't mean de-risked
The quarter’s two tier downgrades both retain the structural profile that made them CRITICAL in Q1. The report explains why a lower index score is not a signal to stand down.
The quarter’s two tier downgrades both retain the structural profile that made them CRITICAL in Q1. The report explains why a lower index score is not a signal to stand down.
How the index works?
Each category receives a composite score from 0 to 100, built from four signals:
- Third-party seller concentration (40 points). The proportion of category revenue flowing through third-party sellers rather than 1P inventory. The structural prerequisite for grey market activity.
- International seller revenue presence (30 points). The share of category revenue attributable to internationally registered seller accounts.
- Seller density (20 points). The average number of competing seller offers per listing, which correlates with Featured Offer (Buy Box) displacement frequency.
- Seller base expansion (10 points). Whether the average number of sellers per listing grew within the measured timeframe.
The full methodology, including tier thresholds and the Q1 2026 baseline note, is documented inside the report.
Frequently asked questions (FAQs)
What is the grey market?
The grey market is the sale of genuine products through distribution channels the brand has not sanctioned. Unlike counterfeiting, the product is real; the route and conditions it took to the customer is not one the brand controls, which affects pricing, warranty validity, and the customer’s experience with the product and brand.
What does a CRITICAL rating mean?
A CRITICAL rating (score 70 to 100) means structural conditions are severe: high 3P seller concentration, significant international seller presence, elevated density, or active seller expansion create an environment where grey market activity is highly likely and difficult to detect manually. It is a measure of conditions, not a count of unverified sellers.
How often is the index updated?
Full scores are published quarterly. Between editions, all 20 categories are re-scored monthly and material movement is published as a Movement Alert.
Which categories are highest risk right now?
At Q2 2026 close, Home & Kitchen and Cell Phones & Accessories are joint top scorers at 81.5, and ten of the 20 tracked categories rate CRITICAL. The full ranking is on this page; signal-level detail is in the report.
Where does the data come from?
The index is computed from Amazon US marketplace data across all 20 tracked categories, scored with GreyScout’s four-signal model. Methodology is documented in full inside the report.
Who uses this report
Brand Owners & eCommerce Teams
Use the Risk Index to re-set category priorities for Q3, identify which listings require immediate Buy Box-level investigation, and brief senior leadership on marketplace exposure before peak-season demand builds.
Brand Protection & Legal Counsel
Use the subcategory-level data to prioritise test purchase programmes, calibrate enforcement cadence for the six newly CRITICAL categories, and build the case for brand protection investment where risk has rotated in.
Get the full Q2 2026 report
The complete signal-level dataset for all 20 categories, the 15 highest-risk subcategories, quarter-over-quarter movement on the restated baseline, and guidance by team. Includes the full H1 2026 movement-alert archive.
Previous editions
- Q1 2026 edition (January to March 2026 data)